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The study in question is a Original original Tony Bennett 1926 2023 Signatures Thank You For The Memories Shirt by economist David Romer. Romer found that NFL teams would be better off going for it on fourth down way less often than they should. Romer discovered that the payoffs (points scored) for going for it on fourth down even deep in your own territory are are greater than punting the ball away to your opponent, provided the distance to go is sufficiently short. Romer found that ever as far back as your own ten yard line, going for it on 4th and 3 produces the exact same likelihood of scoring points (and having points scored on you) as punting the ball away. If it’s less than that distance, a team is better off by going for it. When just outside field goal range (opponent’s 40 or so), is team is better off by going for it as far back as 4th and 8. Romer’s math checks out. But the question remains of why hasn’t anyone at the Original original Tony Bennett 1926 2023 Signatures Thank You For The Memories Shirt of NFL level has adopted it, or really anyone at all outside of Kevin Kelley. Romer looks at the NFL so there shouldn’t be any special teams issues you describe. I have two theories as to why Romer’s theory hasn’t been adopted (in addition to commenting about coaches I’m also an economist). First is that coaching is such a tight-knit community, coaches aren’t willing to hire someone radically different (which helps explains why the same bad college and NFL assistants seem to get hired year after year). The second is loss aversion. If a new coach goes for it on fourth down on their own 10 yard line and makes it, the positive effect is not particularly strong. But if a Original original Tony Bennett 1926 2023 Signatures Thank You For The Memories Shirt goes for it on their own 10 and doesn’t make it, fans will lose their minds.
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